The Federal Reserve has little choice but to stay on the sidelines this week.

A top economist challenges the Fed outlook, warning no rate cuts in 2026 as inflation stays sticky and the Iran war drives energy costs higher.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman says she has penciled in three rate cuts before the end of 2026, citing concerns about the U.S. labor market.

Growth and inflation projections for 2025–2027 were revised higher, while the rate path remained largely unchanged, signaling reluctance to tighten policy further. FOMC members are increasingly concerned about upside inflation risks from energy prices,

The Fed is now less likely to cut interest rates in 2026, but energy and tariff related uncertainty makes the path particularly unclear.

As FOMC meets, rising oil prices may push the Fed toward rate hikes this year instead of cuts, as inflation risks grow and economic outlook worsens.

The Fed is expected to hold rates in March 2026 as CPI hits 2.4% and credit risks, oil, or tariffs impact bank stocks. Read more on the FOMC's decision here.

A Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and earnings from AI darling Micron are on the way this week. While the Fed isn’t expected to change rates when it makes its next interest rate decision on Wednesday,